NOAA: Hurricane Teddy Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida - NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, September 17, 2020, due to the presence of Category 3 Hurricane Teddy (formerly Invest 95L and Tropical Depression Twenty).

Teddy the earliest 19th named storm of any Atlantic hurricane season.

Hurricane Teddy Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Teddy 2020 Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Teddy 2020 Projected Path

Hurricane Teddy is located about 610 miles east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles and is moving to the northwest at 12 mph (19 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion is expected to continue into the weekend.

HurricaneTeddy Computer Models

Hurricane Teddy 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Hurricane Teddy 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in strong agreement that Teddy will track northwestward across the Atlantic Ocean for the next 2 days then curve to the north-northeast on day 3 or 4.

The ECMWF European model (orange triangle), UKMET (blue square), GFS American model (purple square), and HWRF model (pink circle) have all become tightly clustered in this forecast.

The new official NHC track (red circle) is close to the previous advisory track and lies in the middle of the track guidance.

Hurricane Teddy Category Strength

Hurricane Teddy 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Hurricane Teddy 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Teddy is a major Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h), with higher gusts.

Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight. A slow weakening trend is expected to begin over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center of the cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurred on September 10 when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Currently, a total of 6 tropical cyclones may form within the next 5 days.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September
Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.