MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, October 4, 2020, due to the presence of Invest 92L 2020 that will likely form into a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico.
Recent satellite wind data and visible satellite imagery indicate that the circulation is gradually becoming better defined. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization since this morning.
NHC forecasters say that although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system moves over the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea
Invest 92L has an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and an 80% chance within the next 48 hours.
If Invest 92L becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Greek Alphabet Names List is Delta.
Invest 92L is a broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean Sea a little less than 100 miles south-southeast of eastern
Jamaica (marked with a red “X”).
The disturbance is forecast to move near Jamaica through Monday, and then pass near the Cayman Islands early Tuesday and approach western Cuba by late Tuesday, and interests in those areas should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Invest 92L is forecast to move into the southern or southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or Wednesday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 92L will move in a northwesterly direction across the Caribbean, travel near or over the western tip of Cuba, and then enter the Gulf of Mexico.
September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through the first half of October, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.