NOAA: Tropical Storm Zeta Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, October 27, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Zeta (formerly Invest 95L and Tropical Depression 28) near the Yucatan Peninsula.

Zeta is the earliest 27th named storm in the history of the Atlantic Hurricane Basin.

Tropical Storm Zeta 2020 Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Zeta Projected Path

Tropical Storm Zeta is located about 520 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph (22 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion is forecast to continue today.

Zeta should turn toward the north tonight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico later today and over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight.

Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, make landfall within the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move inland across the southeastern United States early Thursday.

Tropical Storm Zeta 2020 Computer Models

Tropical Storm Zeta Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in strong agreement that Tropical Storm Zeta will move in a northwesterly direction, then curve to the north then northeast, and make landfall near southeastern Louisiana.

The new NHC track forecast (red circle) is about the same as the previous one and close to the model consensus.

Tropical Storm Zeta Category Strength

Tropical Storm Zeta NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Storm Zeta has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h), with higher gusts.

Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen while it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico, and become a hurricane again later today.

Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Zeta Watches and Warnings

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to Navarre, Florida; Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border; Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Punta Allen to Progreso, Mexico; Cozumel; and the Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through the first half of October, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.


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