NOAA: Tropical Storm Eta Track To Florida, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida - NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 10 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Tuesday, November 10, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Eta near the western tip of Cuba.

This is the first time an Atlantic Hurricane Season has reached the name Eta in the Greek Alphabet.

Eta is the twenty-eighth named storm of the 2020 season which ties the record for the number of named storms set in 2005.

Tropical Storm Eta Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Eta Projected Path

Tropical Storm Eta is located about 315 miles south-southwest of Tampa, Florida, and is moving to the north-northeast at 9 mph (15 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a motion toward the north-northeast is forecast through Thursday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida on Wednesday, approach the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Eta Computer Models

Tropical Storm Eta Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

There has once again been a significant eastward shift in the 18Z dynamical model guidance, with the GFS American model (purple square), HWRF, and UKMET models all showing a faster north-northeastward motion toward the Florida west coast.

As a result, the NHC forecast has again been shifted eastward and lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus through 36 hours.

After that time, the NHC track (red circle) is slower and west of the bulk of the consensus aids as the ECMWF European Model (orange square) still shows Eta weakening and lingering near the Florida Big Bend.

Tropical Storm Eta Category Strength

Tropical Storm Eta NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Storm Eta has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h), with higher gusts.

Some additional strengthening is forecast through Wednesday, and Eta could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday morning.

Gradual weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center of the cyclone.

Tropical Storm Eta Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas and from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River, Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River, Florida; and the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through the first half of November, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

October Hurricanes Atlantic Hurricane Season Historical

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.