NOAA: Tropical Storm Eta Track Update, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 1 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Thursday, November 12, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Eta that is tracking toward Florida’s west coast.

This is the first time an Atlantic Hurricane Season has reached the name Eta in the Greek Alphabet list.

Eta is the twenty-eighth named storm of the 2020 season which ties the record for the number of named storms set in 2005.

Tropical Storm Eta Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Eta Projected Path

Tropical Storm Eta is located about 65 miles northwest of Tampa, Florida, and is moving to the north at 10 mph (17 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast Thursday morning.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Eta will move near but just offshore of the west-central coast of Florida during the next few hours, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula this morning.

Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late today and early Friday.

Tropical Storm Eta Computer Models

Tropical Storm Eta Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Computer models remain in excellent agreement on Eta turning northeastward soon, with the cyclone making landfall along the western coast of the northern Florida peninsula in the region from Cedar Key to Crystal River.

The official NHC track forecast follows the general trajectory of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus, but is somewhat slower than the consensus guidance in deference to the latest GFS American model.

Tropical Storm Eta Category Strength

Tropical Storm Eta NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Eta has maximum sustained winds near 60 mph (95 km/h), with higher gusts.

Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida during the next few hours, followed by more rapid weakening after landfall occurs later today.

Eta is forecast to dissipate over the western Atlantic Ocean by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Eta Watches and Warnings

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Englewood to Suwannee River, Florida; and from the Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound, Georgia.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the Steinhatchee River to the Suwannee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River, Florida.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through the first half of November, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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NOAA: Tropical Storm Eta Track To Florida West Coast, Spaghetti Models

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