National Hurricane Center: 2 Tropical Cyclones May Form, 1 Near Florida

NOAA NHC 2022 Tropical Outlook

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, November 4, 2022, due to the presence of two systems that may form into subtropical or tropical cyclones over the Atlantic.

First System

The first system is a  weak non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda that continues to produce a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms (yellow-shaded area).

NHC forecasters say that any tropical or subtropical development of this disturbance should be slow to occur during the next few days as it moves slowly southward today and then turns westward by the weekend.

The system is forecast to merge with a larger low pressure area developing to its southwest by the end of the weekend and further development is not anticipated at that time.

This system has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours.

Second System

The second system is a large non-tropical low pressure system that is expected to develop this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean sea and southwestern Atlantic (orange-shaded area closest to Florida).

NHC forecasters say that this system is expected to initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while it moves generally northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic.

This system has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases.

But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through October, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

Historical Atlantic Hurricane Activity By Date
Historical Atlantic Hurricane Activity By Date