NOAA: Hurricane Nicole Track, Spaghetti Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Nicole Track

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 7 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday, November 9, 2022, due to the presence of Hurricane Nicole (formerly Invest 98L).

Hurricane Nicole Projected Path

Hurricane Nicole is located about 100 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida, and is moving west at 13 mph (20 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Nicole will move near or over Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and evening and move onshore on the east coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area tonight.

Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia on Thursday and Thursday night and into the Carolinas on Friday.

Hurricane Nicole Computer Models

Hurricane Nicole 2022 Spaghetti Models, Computer Models
Hurricane Nicole 2022 Spaghetti Models, Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in good agreement during the first 12 to 24 hours, with some increase in the spread during the curvature portion of the forecast.

The ECMWF European model (orange) and GFS American model (purple) show a more westward motion, while the HWRF model (pink) and HMON show a more northwestward motion.

The official NHC track forecast is slightly west after 24 hours to be close to the latest consensus aids.

Hurricane Nicole Category Strength

Hurricane Nicole Wind Arrival Times
Hurricane Nicole Wind Arrival Times

Hurricane Nicole has maximum sustained winds near 75 mph (120 km/h), with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is expected today, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane near the northwestern Bahamas and remain a hurricane when it reaches the east coast of Florida tonight.

Little change in strength is expected this evening, and Nicole is forecast to remain a hurricane until it reaches
the east coast of Florida tonight or early Thursday.

Nicole is expected to weaken while moving across Florida and the southeastern United States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485 miles (780 km) from the center, especially to the north of the center of the tropical cyclone.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases.

But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through November, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

Historical Atlantic Hurricane Activity By Date Historical Atlantic Hurricane Activity By Date