NOAA: Invest 98L 2022, Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA NHC November 2022 Tropical Outlook

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 1 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Sunday, November 6, 2022, due to the presence of Invest 98L which may form into a subtropical or tropical cyclone over the Atlantic.

Invest 98L is an area of low pressure that is developing about 200 miles north of Puerto Rico (the red-shaded area closest to Florida).

NHC forecasters say that this system is expected to move northward over the southwestern Atlantic later today, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form north of Hispaniola.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early part of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic.

Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early-to-middle part of next week.

The disturbance is also expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this weekend.

Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system.

This system has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and an 80% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 98L 2022 Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 98L will move in a north-northewesterly direction and then make a turn to the west towards the east coast of Florida near West Palm Beach.

The ECMWF European model (orange triangle), UKMET (blue square), GFS American model (purple square), and HWRF model (pink circle) are all tightly clustered in this forecast.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases.

But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through November, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

Historical Atlantic Hurricane Activity By Date
Historical Atlantic Hurricane Activity By Date