NOAA: Tropical Cyclone Likely To Form Near Florida

NOAA NHC November 2022 Tropical Outlook

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 7 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Sunday, November 6, 2022, due to the presence of two systems that may form into subtropical or tropical cyclones over the Atlantic.

First System

The first system, Invest 98L, is an area of low pressure that is developing about 100 miles north of Puerto Rico (the red-shaded area closest to Florida).

NHC forecasters say that this system is expected to move northward over the southwestern Atlantic later today, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form north of Hispaniola.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early part of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic.

Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early-to-middle part of next week.

The disturbance is also expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this weekend.

Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system.

This system has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 70% chance within the next 48 hours.

Second System

The second system, Invest 97L, is a well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda  (top red-shaded area).

NHC forecasters say that shower and thunderstorm activity has been attempting to redevelop closer to the center,
and if these trends continue, a short-lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today while the system drifts slowly over the central Atlantic.

Invest 97L is forecast to turn northward and northeastward and merge with a strong cold front by the middle of next week, and further development is not expected beyond that time.

This system has a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 70% chance within the next 48 hours.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases.

But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through November, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

Historical Atlantic Hurricane Activity By Date
Historical Atlantic Hurricane Activity By Date